Why did the jobs report push stocks higher instead of lower?

Counter-intuitive but classic: a weak jobs number signals that the economy is cooling without tipping into recession, which reduces the probability that the Federal Reserve will hike rates. Lower rate expectations reduce the discount rate applied to future earnings — pushing equity valuations higher. On Friday, the probability of a September 2026 rate hike fell from 63% to under 40% immediately after the 8:30 AM release.

Is Palantir's rally sustainable?

PLTR has gone from a sell-side skeptic story to a consensus favorite in one quarter. The Q2 beat (+36% revenue growth, raised full-year guidance, 29% post-earnings gap) has now extended +10.3% in Friday's session. The thesis — government AI contracts are winner-take-most and PLTR has the most defensible data moat — is gaining converts. The risk: at current valuations, any guide miss in Q3 could be severe.

What is the market pricing for next week's earnings?

SMCI options are pricing ~12% move into earnings (Aug 12 after close). CSCO is pricing ~5% move (Aug 13 after close). DE is pricing ~4% move (Aug 14 before open). The consensus is cautiously bullish on all three: SMCI as an AI server volume play, CSCO as a networking infrastructure beneficiary, and DE as a precision agriculture + construction bellwether with a historically reliable beat track record.

S&P 500 Breaks All-Time Record at 7,758 as Jobs Shock Kills Rate Hike Odds: PLTR +10%, SpaceX +16%

By Yogurt · 2026-08-09 · Market Analysis

Friday's surprise jobs miss — employers shed 23,000 positions, far below the +150K consensus — crushed September rate hike odds and sent the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. Palantir extended its earnings rally +10.3% and SpaceX surged 15.8% on an Argus Research upgrade.

Friday, August 8, 2026 was not supposed to go this way. The jobs report — released at 8:30 AM Eastern — showed employers shed 23,000 positions in July, a stunning reversal from the prior month's +147,000 and far below the Wall Street consensus of +150,000. A miss of that magnitude typically sparks a selloff. Instead, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 7,758 — its second record close of the week — capping the biggest seven-day run for US equities since April.

This is the counterintuitive math of a rate-sensitive market. The Schwartz is strong with the bulls — and the Fed's shadow is the key variable.

Why a Jobs Miss Sent Stocks to Records

Here is the mechanism: a weaker labor market reduces the probability that the Federal Reserve will hike rates. On Thursday, the implied probability of a September 2026 rate hike stood at 63% — an uncomfortable overhang for equities trading at 21x forward earnings. By 9:00 AM Friday, that probability had collapsed to under 40%. Treasury yields fell, the dollar softened, and the equity risk premium compressed.

The unemployment rate also declined slightly, and the labor force participation rate dipped — suggesting the miss was partly structural (workers leaving the workforce) rather than purely recessionary. That nuance mattered: it gave bulls permission to read the miss as a soft landing signal, not a recession warning.

Palantir: The +10.3% Friday Extension

After Tuesday's jaw-dropping +29% post-earnings gap, PLTR has refused to consolidate. Thursday added another leg higher, and Friday brought yet another +10.3% surge — putting the stock up over 40% in just two weeks. The catalyst: Palantir's government AI narrative is catching fire across institutional desks. The company's Q2 results — 36% revenue growth, a dramatically raised full-year outlook, and evidence of expanding government AI contracts from the US, UK, and allied nations — have transformed it from a controversial government-data company into a consensus AI infrastructure pick.

The risk is real: at these valuations (now trading at over 100x forward earnings), any Q3 guidance shortfall would be punishing. But for now, the momentum is one-directional.

SpaceX: +15.8% on Argus Research Upgrade

SpaceX surged 15.8% on Friday, extending Thursday's rally, after Argus Research upgraded the stock to "Buy" citing rapid returns on AI infrastructure investments. The report highlighted Starlink's accelerating subscriber growth, SpaceX's emerging position as a private cloud and data transport infrastructure layer, and the company's ability to monetize its launch capacity for third-party AI compute deployments. The Argus note pointed to a potential valuation of $450B+ — higher than most current models.

Thursday's lockup expiration flood, which many feared would crater the stock, proved manageable. The volume absorbed without structural breakdown, which itself is a bullish signal about the underlying demand for the shares.

Other Movers: Akamai Beats, WDC/SNDK Stumble

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) surged over 8% after reporting a Q2 earnings beat — revenue and EPS both came in above consensus, with strong demand for its AI-focused content delivery and cloud security products. The result validates the thesis that edge computing infrastructure is a beneficiary of the AI workload boom, not just data center chip suppliers.

On the downside, Sandisk (SNDK) fell 3.7% and Western Digital (WDC) dropped 3.8% — two storage companies facing pricing pressure as NAND flash supply begins to normalize after a period of artificial tightness. Berkshire Hathaway also slipped ahead of its Q2 earnings report, with investors cautious about whether Warren Buffett's conservative cash-heavy posture will look smart or missed-opportunity in a market hitting all-time highs.

Week Ahead: The Final Earnings Gauntlet

Three reports will define whether the AI infrastructure thesis extends beyond the hyperscalers or shows its first cracks:

SMCI (Aug 12, after close): AI server racks. Revenue estimate ~$6.5–7.0B. Watch gross margins — if they expand alongside Blackwell deployments, the stock could re-rate sharply higher.
CSCO (Aug 13, after close): Network hardware. The quiet backbone of data center AI buildout. A guidance raise confirms the CapEx boom is real and broad.
DE (Aug 14, before open): Deere is the macro bellwether. Precision agriculture, construction, and global supply chain health all roll into one report. A beat here would cap a near-perfect earnings season.

If all three beat with raised guidance, the narrative becomes clear: the AI CapEx boom has escaped hyperscaler concentration and is now flowing through the entire infrastructure supply chain. That is the bull case for a sustained move toward S&P 8,000.

The Schwartz sees the record. The real question is whether SMCI, Cisco, and Deere can confirm the boom is real. May the earnings be with your portfolio.