Is September Really the Scariest Month for Stocks? Statistics Say Otherwise.
By Yogurt · 2026-09-02 · Market Analysis
Is September Really the Scariest Month for Stocks? Statistics Say Otherwise.
September has a notorious reputation among investors as a month of poor returns, often kicking off with a sea of red. But is this fear justified, especially in a year where the market has shown significant strength? A closer look at the historical data reveals a much more nuanced and surprisingly optimistic picture. While it's true that the S&P 500 has averaged a -0.72% return in September since 1990, this single number hides a more complex reality. In fact, historically, 50% of all Septembers have ended in positive territory. The key to understanding September's potential performance lies in the market's momentum leading into the month. The data shows a clear divergence based on year-to-date (YTD) performance: - When the S&P 500 is **down** for the year heading into September, the month lives up to its scary reputation, with an average loss of **-3.24%**. - However, when the market is **up** YTD—as it is in 2026—the average September return flips to a modest positive of **+0.39%**. - The outlook gets even brighter when the market is up by **more than 10%** YTD. In those instances, based on data from the last 12 years, September has delivered an average return of **+0.93%**. This year, the market enters September in a position of strength, fitting the latter two, more bullish scenarios. This suggests that the widespread fear might be misplaced. Of course, statistics aren't a guarantee. Positive Septembers can be exceptionally strong, with returns as high as 8.8% in some mid-term election years, while negative ones can see steep drops, like the nearly 12% plunge in 1974 or the 9.3% fall in 2022. Today's market still faces headwinds from upcoming interest rate decisions, geopolitical tensions, and volatile energy prices. From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 chart doesn't currently flash major warning signs. The index recently closed a technical gap from early August and is holding a key support level. The underlying positive market structure remains intact. While a blanket fear of September is common, the data suggests a more calculated view is warranted. With strong YTD performance, this September has a statistical tendency to defy its negative reputation. As always, the market is full of surprises, and this month could be a positive one precisely because so many expect the opposite.